Executive Summary

This whitepaper explores the fundamental risks that quantum computing poses to current encryption standards and outlines what organizations should be doing now to prepare for the post-quantum era. As quantum computers continue to advance, the threat to our current cryptographic infrastructure grows more imminent, making quantum readiness a critical priority for organizations of all sizes.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction to Quantum Computing
2. The Cryptographic Threat Landscape
3. Timeline for Quantum Threats
4. Vulnerable Systems and Data
5. Post-Quantum Cryptography Solutions
6. Creating a Quantum Readiness Roadmap
7. Recommendations and Next Steps

1. Introduction to Quantum Computing

Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computational power. Unlike classical computers that use bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use quantum bits or “qubits” that can exist in multiple states simultaneously through a property called superposition. This, combined with quantum entanglement, allows quantum computers to solve certain problems exponentially faster than classical computers.

While general-purpose quantum computers are still in development, specialized quantum algorithms already exist that can break many of the cryptographic systems we rely on today. Most notably, Shor’s algorithm can efficiently factor large numbers and compute discrete logarithms, undermining the security of RSA, DSA, ECC, and other public-key cryptosystems that form the backbone of our digital security infrastructure.

2. The Cryptographic Threat Landscape

The quantum threat primarily impacts public-key cryptography, which is used for key exchange and digital signatures. The following cryptographic systems are particularly vulnerable:

Symmetric encryption algorithms like AES are less vulnerable but not entirely immune. Grover’s algorithm could potentially reduce the security of AES-128 to that of AES-64, making AES-256 the recommended minimum for long-term security.

3. Timeline for Quantum Threats

Predicting exactly when quantum computers will become powerful enough to break current cryptography is challenging, but most experts agree on the following timeline:

4. Vulnerable Systems and Data

Organizations should identify systems and data that are particularly vulnerable to quantum threats:

• Long-lived data: Information that must remain confidential for many years (e.g., healthcare records, intellectual property, national security information)
• Infrastructure with long deployment cycles: Systems that are difficult to update and may remain in use for decades (e.g., industrial control systems, satellites)
• Identity and authentication systems: PKI infrastructure, digital certificates, and identity management systems
• Secure communications: VPNs, TLS, and other encrypted communication channels
• Blockchain and cryptocurrency: Systems relying on ECC for transaction signatures

5. Post-Quantum Cryptography Solutions

NIST is currently standardizing several post-quantum cryptographic algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks. These include:

• Lattice-based cryptography: CRYSTALS-Kyber (key encapsulation) and CRYSTALS-Dilithium (digital signatures)
• Hash-based signatures: SPHINCS+
• Code-based cryptography: Classic McEliece
• Multivariate cryptography: Rainbow (for specific applications)

Organizations should begin planning for the integration of these algorithms into their security infrastructure.

6. Creating a Quantum Readiness Roadmap

A comprehensive quantum readiness roadmap should include the following steps:

1. Inventory cryptographic assets: Identify all systems using cryptography and catalog the algorithms in use
2. Assess data lifespan requirements: Determine how long your data needs to remain secure
3. Prioritize systems for migration: Focus first on systems with long-lived data and difficult update cycles
4. Implement crypto-agility: Design systems to easily transition between cryptographic algorithms
5. Test post-quantum algorithms: Begin testing NIST-approved algorithms in non-production environments
6. Develop a migration strategy: Create a phased approach for transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptography
7. Train staff: Ensure your team understands quantum threats and post-quantum solutions

7. Recommendations and Next Steps

Based on our analysis, we recommend the following immediate actions:

Conclusion

The quantum threat to cryptography is real and approaching rapidly. Organizations that begin preparing now will be well-positioned to maintain security in the post-quantum era. Those that delay may find themselves scrambling to update critical systems under pressure, potentially exposing sensitive data to quantum-enabled adversaries.